tonify-sims

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SOURCES — every parameter, its value, its provenance

One row per model parameter: the value the simulations actually use, the source as verified in the research vault (tonify-research, 1,152 notes), the vault note id, and where the parameter enters the code/figures. Rows where the vault does not confirm the repo’s attribution say so explicitly — see Discrepancies below the table. Nothing in this file is cited from memory; every link was read from a vault note. Where the vault has no source, the row says assumption or not in vault instead of inventing one.

#	Parameter	Value used	Source (as verified in vault)	Vault note	Used in
1	Artists under 1,000 streams/yr (target T1)	87%	Closest verified: Luminate year-end 2023 — 86.2% of tracks (not artists) ≤1,000 plays, via MBW 14 Mar 2024 (link); artist-side analogue: Chartmetric 2025 — 86% of Spotify artists <10 monthly listeners, via Kullick & Petry 2025 (PDF). See discrepancy D1.	deezer-has-deleted-26m-fake-artist-and-noise-tracks-since-it-launched-its-artist, a-r-t-i-c-l-e	sim1 world construction, validation T1; fig2
2	Rightsholders above $1,000/yr	2.6% (259,700 of 10M+ uploaders, 2023)	Spotify Loud & Clear (2023 data), via Music Ally, 14 Jan 2025 (link)	chartmetric-tracks-11m-spotify-artists-fewer-than-16m-have-over-10-listeners-mus	sim1 validation T2; CRITIC §5 bound (rightsholders, not artists)
3	Top share of streams (target T3)	top-0.28% ≈ 50%; Gini 0.72	Òscar Celma, PhD thesis Music Recommendation and Discovery, UPF Barcelona (Last.fm crawl, July 2007: top-737 of 260,525 artists = 50% of playcounts) (PDF). Not a CMA number — CMA’s own: top-0.4% → 63–65% of streams 2014–2020 (final report). See D2.	music-recommendation-and-discovery, music-and-streaming, interim-report-c2-lfm-dataset-calibration-parameter	sim1 validation T3 (world Gini validates at 0.97 by streams)
4	Plays per listener per artist	median 5.16, mean 21.21	Schedl & Hauger, Int. J. Multimedia Information Retrieval 6:71–84, 2017, Table 6 (LFM-1b: 120,322 users, 1.09B events) (PDF); dataset intro: Schedl, ICMR 2016 (PDF). Measures panel lifetime, not a year → red team widened to 8–21 (CRITIC §2).	int-j-multimed-info-retr-2017-67184, the-lfm-1b-dataset-for	every MVA number (PL=21.21 in all three sim1 scripts); fig1/5/7
5	Pro-rata independent payout	$4.43 per 1,000 streams (US, Jan 2026)	Cited in PAPER §3 as Duetti; not in vault — no Duetti note exists, no public link verified here. See D3.	—	anchor of the independent pool; fig1/5/7, breakeven
6	Signed artist per-stream take	$0.0003/stream	Not in vault as a direct figure. Nearest independent points in vault: E&Y/SNEP 2015 waterfall via Techdirt (link); AEPO-ARTIS ≈£0.00065/stream (Sony data in CMA); CMA ≈£0.001/stream. See D3.	yes-major-record-labels-are-keeping-nearly-all-the-money-they-get-from-spotify-r, interim-report-per-fan-yield-for-the-mid-tail	anchor of the signed pocket; 188,590; fig1/5/7
7	Label pass-through	6.772% — derived as 0.0003/0.00443, not an input (PAPER CHANGELOG v0.5.1)	Vault-independent corroboration of the order: 8–20% pass-through (Rose, Streaming in the Dark, Berkeley J. Ent. & Sports Law 13:1, May 2024, PDF); ~10.6% reaches recording artists (CMU via AEPO-ARTIS). The “~6.8% (CNM)” corroboration named in code comments is not in vault. See D4.	streaming-in-the-dark, spotifys-loud-but-not-so-clear-aepo-artis	v05 matrix signed column; ×14.8 contract multiplier; fig7
8	Superfan share of audience	0.6–1.7% (sensitivity range; 1.7% base)	SoundCloud × MIDiA, Building a fan economy with Fan-Powered Royalties, July 2022 (118,000 artists: avg 1.5% of interactions → 29% of income; “typically 1–2%”; FPR winners 1.9% → 42%) (PDF). Lower bound 0.6% from the 97-2-1 participation rule (CRITIC §7), not from the white paper. See D5.	1-building-a-fan-economy-with-fan-powered-royalties	breakeven range (18 combinations); fig1, fig6
9	Superfan revenue share (retraction input)	29% of artist income	Same SoundCloud × MIDiA white paper — share of royalties under FPR, not donations; this category error is why “0.42 donations/yr” was retracted (CRITIC §1)	1-building-a-fan-economy-with-fan-powered-royalties	retracted P6 inversion; Retracted & bounded
10	Donation check	$3.1–6.9 (range; lognormal $5 base)	Range anchor: Waskow, Markett, Montag et al., Pay What You Want! A Pilot Study on Neural Correlates of Voluntary Payments for Music, Frontiers in Psychology 7:1023, 2016 — corrected mean PWYW €3.10, refusal 24.4% vs 17.3% (128/525 vs 91/525), N=25, real Bandcamp albums (link). The lognormal($5, σ=0.8) shape is an assumption, not measured (RESULTS, honest limitations).	pay-what-you-want-a-pilot-study-on-neural-correlates-of-voluntary-payments-for-m, interim-report-pwyw-conditions-and-power-law-reproduction	direct-economy check; fig1/5/6/7, breakeven
11	Subscription price × pool share	$11.99/mo × 70% to the rights pool	70%: “around 70%” per Bergantiños & Moreno-Ternero 2023 (citing Meyn et al. 2023) (PDF). $11.99 (US price) not in vault (vault holds UK £ tariffs from the CMA report). See D6.	arxiv231011861v1-econth-18-oct-2023	user-centric wallet model; fig1/5/7
12	Twitch paying-fan cadence, sub price, split	k=12+ structural; $5/mo; 50/50 split	$5 monthly sub: Sjöblom & Hamari, Computers in Human Behavior 2017 (PDF); 50/50 split: only as the title of ref. 44 (Clancy 2022 letter) in the vault — percentages not in any note body. See D7.	full-length-article, vol0123456789-2	Twitch mechanics row (MVA 2,353); fig5/7; RESULTS §2
13	Twitch income inequality	α=−2.13, Gini 0.57 (top-10k), ≈0.93 platform-wide	Houssard, Pilati, Tartari, Sacco & Gallotti, Monetization in online streaming platforms, Scientific Reports 13:1103 (2023) (PDF)	vol0123456789-2	RESULTS §2 benchmark context
14	Twitch motivation model	explains 3.7% of subscription variance; N=1,097	Sjöblom & Hamari 2017 (same paper as #12)	full-length-article	RESULTS §2 (why cadence, not motivation, is the dial)
15	Tencent gifting multiplier	ARPPU ¥175.1 vs ¥8.5 = 20.6× (4Q21); 6.4× after squeeze (4Q24); segment −66.3% over 3 yrs	TME 4Q/FY2021 results (link); TME 4Q/FY2024 results (link)	interim-report-tme-gifting-and-cis-willingness-to-pay, tencent-music-entertainment-group-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2021-un	RESULTS §2 benchmark; PAPER §4 (regulatory risk in §9)
16	Patreon cadence and scale	k=12 (monthly billing arithmetic); ~25M paid vs ~100M free (Dec 2025)	Water & Music, Why superfan subscriptions are dying out, Dec 2025 (link). k=12 is billing arithmetic, not a vault number.	why-superfan-subscriptions-are-dying-out	RESULTS §2 benchmark
17	Telegram Stars retention and payout	desktop 96.5% / mobile 67.5%; min withdrawal 1,000 Stars (~$13); 21-day hold	Withdrawal minimum 1,000 Stars: Telegram primary (stars_revenue_withdrawal_min in api/config, api/stars); retention and $-conversion: Tribute vendor guide 2026 (link) — vault holds ranges 95–97% / 65–70%; the point values 96.5/67.5 are midpoints. See D8.	telegram-stars-guide-2026-earning-conversion-withdrawal, client-configuration, telegram-stars	fig4 rails; $13 threshold logistics (Finding 4)
18	TON transaction fee	~$0.0005 used in the model	Vault holds TON-denominated figures: ~0.00039 TON (ton.org marketing, link) and 0.000540370 TON measured (TON docs benchmark). The $ figure is a conversion, not a vault number — see D9.	ton-the-leading-l1-blockchain, wallets-performance-benchmark, interim-report-cost-model-architecture-mismatch	fig4 rails (0.1¢ of $1)
19	Hamster Kombat collapse	×25 in 6 months (300M → 12M), calibration anchor	300M+ users and post-airdrop decline to 12M MAU: AInvest (link), CryptoPotato Sep 2024 (link). The “Caladan, Apr 2026” attribution (fig13 caption, SPEC) is not in vault. See D10.	telegrams-play-to-earn-ecosystem-as-a-high-growth-investment-opportunity-in-2025, hamster-kombat-announces-details-of-airdrop-23m-accounts-banned-for-cheating	sim3 calibration T1; fig11–13
20	Streaming fraud scale (context)	up to 85% of fully-AI-track streams fraudulent (2025); ~$2B/yr industry losses	Two sources, not one: 85% — Deezer Newsroom, 29 Jan 2026 (link, Jul 2026); $2B/yr — Beatdapp via MBW, 9 Jul 2024 (link). See D11.	how-to-detect-ai-music-deezer-sells-its-detection-tool, ai-music-tops-50-of-daily-uploads-on-deezer, streaming-fraud-costs-the-global-music-industry-2bn-a-year-according-to-beatdapp	motivation for fig3 (the model’s dilution curve itself is analytic)
21	Payout-rule core theorem	any stable rule divides a listener’s fee only among artists that listener streamed	Bergantiños & Moreno-Ternero, Revenue sharing at music streaming platforms, arXiv:2310.11861 [econ.TH], Oct 2023 (PDF) — full text in vault	arxiv231011861v1-econth-18-oct-2023	PAPER §1 (World-A ceiling argument); README Related work
22	Bottom-tier market share	bottom two popularity categories ≈ 2% of market (2.2B remunerated streams)	Frederik Juul Jensen, PhD dissertation Alternative Payment Systems on Music Streaming Platforms, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, defended 5 Sep 2025 (Deezer data: 160,747 users, 2018–2020, 3.3B → 2.2B streams) (PDF)	jensen-2025-phd-dissertation-alternative-payment-systems-on-music-streaming-plat	sim1 validation (“bottom 90% hold 0.9%” cross-check)

Discrepancies (vault vs repo attribution) — kept visible on purpose

The table above records what the vault actually verifies. Where the repo’s running text attributes differently, the difference is listed here rather than silently harmonized — the same policy as Retracted & bounded.

• D1 — “87% of artists (Luminate)”. The vault’s Luminate 2023 number is 86.2% of tracks ≤1,000 plays, not artists. The artist-side figures in the vault are Chartmetric’s (86% under 10 monthly listeners). The T1 anchor functions as a stylized target; its label “artists (Luminate)” overstates the source’s granularity.
• D2 — “CMA/Last.fm” for top-0.28% ≈ 50%. The 0.28%/50% pair and Gini 0.72 are Celma’s 2007 Last.fm crawl. CMA’s own measurement is top-0.4% → 63–65% (2014–2020). The repo’s combined label “CMA/Last.fm” should read “Last.fm (Celma 2008); cf. CMA”.
• D3 — the two per-stream anchors are not in the vault. Neither Duetti $4.43/1,000 (independent) nor $0.0003/stream (signed pocket) has a vault note. They are the model’s declared external anchors (PAPER §3, CHANGELOG v0.5.1 precision caveat); nearest independent vault points: AEPO-ARTIS ≈£0.00065/stream, CMA ≈£0.001/stream, E&Y/SNEP 2015 waterfall.
• D4 — “CNM ~6.8%”. No CNM note in the vault carries 6.8%. The vault’s pass-through estimates span 8–20% (Rose 2024) and ~10.6% (CMU/AEPO-ARTIS). In the code the pass-through is derived from the two anchors (6.772%), so the model does not depend on the CNM figure; the corroboration claim does.
• D5 — superfan lower bound 0.6%. The SoundCloud white paper supports 1.5% average (→29% of income), 1–2% typical, 1.9% winners; 0.6% comes from the 97-2-1 participation rule (CRITIC §7), not from SoundCloud.
• D6 — $11.99. The US subscription price is not vault-sourced (vault holds UK £ tariffs via CMA); 70% pool share is sourced (B&MT 2023).
• D7 — Twitch 50/50. Only the title of Clancy’s 2022 letter on revenue shares exists in the vault’s reference list; the 50/50 number itself is not in any note body.
• D8 — Stars 96.5/67.5. Vault (vendor guide) gives ranges 95–97% and 65–70%; the model uses the midpoints. The 1,000-Star withdrawal minimum is confirmed by Telegram’s own API config; the ~$13 conversion uses the same guide’s $0.013/Star (the guide is internally inconsistent about $/Star at one point).
• D9 — TON fee. Vault numbers are 0.00039–0.00054 TON per transfer; the model’s ~$0.0005 is a dollar conversion not present in the vault (at TON $3–5 the measured fee is ~$0.0016–0.0027).
• D10 — “Caladan, Apr 2026”. The Hamster 300M→12M collapse is vault-confirmed (AInvest, CryptoPotato, Decrypt), but no vault note names Caladan; the fig13 caption and sim3 SPEC attribution are not vault-backed. The vault wording is MAU decline; the SPEC’s “DAU, 6-month window” framing is coarser than the sources.
• D11 — “fraud up to 85%, $2B/yr (Beatdapp)”. Two different sources: the 85% share of AI-track streams is Deezer’s; the $2B/yr industry loss is Beatdapp’s. They should not be cited as one.

Verified from the tonify-research vault (1,152 notes) on 2026-08-09; 132 search/note-show queries, nothing cited from memory.

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